Sept 16: What is America saying about the election

Cameras at polling locations, RFK Jr on the ballot, and Litigation

Overview

Welcome to the first installment of our Election Listening Newsletter. Each week, we will publish a summary of the trends in the online conversation real Americans are having about the U.S. election. In addition, we publish a dashboard where you can see these data for yourself. If you want to receive these in your inbox, sign up now. It’s free. Our goal is to inform public of the questions voters are raising about the election so that experts can provide timely, relevant, and accurate information. You can go to the dashboard here

Where does the data come from, you ask? We use Brandwatch to summarize the conversation being had by 1.8 million US voters on X. If you want to find out more about the data, the dashboard, or this work, check out the FAQ on the dashboard. If you have any questions, direct them to the projects’ director Dr. Jason Radford j.radford@northeastern.edu. With that out of the way, let’s get to it.

Headlines: The biggest conversations right now

The conversation around early voting, in particular, non-citizens voting by mail is driving the toplines.

With mail-in ballots expected to go out in the next couple of weeks, the bulk of conversation right now is about mail-in ballots and voter rolls. Prominent voices are questioning the integrity of mail-in voting and expressing concern about non-citizens voting in the election. While there is a steady stream of content, it is punctuated by headlines driven by legal actions. So, there have been spikes in attention driven by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to disallow undated mail-in ballots; America First Legal’s lawsuit against Arizona, and lawsuits in California and New York. Finally, anytime there is a push enact the SAVE act, there is another burst of online activity.

What can we do? It is clear that election rules vary substantially from state-to-state and are subject to change, even at the last minute. What is important is for election communicators to clearly articulate the rules for ballots, keep voters up-to-date, and explain how those rules prevent fraud, especially non-citizens from voting. While people may disagree as to whether those rules are enough, what’s important is a clear understanding of what those rules and procedures are.

Can the USPS be trusted?

As in 2020, we’re seeing the re-emergence of two claims about the reliability of the United States Postal Service. The first are claims that Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, a Republican appointee, will interfere with ballot processing. The second is skepticism of frontline postal workers stemming from the postal workers’ union endorsement of Kamala Harris. This leaves both sides with reasons not to trust that their mail-in ballot will be received on time.

What can we do? It’s okay to question whether the process is secure. However, we don’t want people who want to vote by mail or have to vote by mail to not vote because they do not trust the postal service. The truth is, no one can guarantee a vote doesn’t get lost. Instead, state election officials should be discussing the process for ensuring mail-in ballot delivery, telling voters how they can check if their ballot has been received, and what to do if they don’t think their mail-in ballot has been counted. In battleground states, you should ask local postmasters to talk about ballot deliveries.

Getting RFK Jr. off the ballot

RFK Jr’s last-minute decision to withdraw from the race has created challenges for election officials, many of whom have already printed ballots. Americans are debating the process of removing him from ballots and the legal processes of removing him from the ballot. Most emblematic has been the legal battle in North Carolina whose elections officials faced substantial challenges meeting deadlines to send out ballots without RFK Jr on them. There are recriminations around the motives of election officials, judges, and politicians who are pushing back on calls to remove RFK Jr on the ballots.

What can we do? As with everything in U.S. elections, it varies by state. States where RFK Jr is not or no longer on the ballot may not have to do anything. Election officials in states where his name cannot be removed should communicate to voters that the candidate is no longer running and explain why he is still on the ballot.

Trends - What’s moving up and down

Georgia Election Board

While not driving the headlines, there is a focused discussion around the Georgia Election Board which has introduced new rules around the certification of the vote. This is part of a broader attempt to create more active oversight in the vote counting and certification process and is part of changes in the way some states are now approaching the certification process altogether.

“Check Your Registration”

Given recent voter roll purges and lawsuits to remove voters from the rolls, many Americans are telling people to check their registration status to make sure they are registered to vote.

Video recording at the polls

While not easy to discern in the dashboards, there were two separate spikes in the data related bring cameras into the voting process. The first is an announcement on Sept 3 by True the Vote to work with Sheriffs to stream video of drop boxes. The second is a post on Sept 8th by Project Veritas founder James O’Keefe to support bringing cameras into polling location. Laws around video recording in elections vary widely. State and local election officials should be prepared to communicate video-recording laws and policies and to enforce those rules this election season.

The Double Click - Wait, what?

“Dallas County”

You’ll likely see Dallas County in your dashboard. When you do, it’s because of a viral story about Dallas County election officials instructing voter registration groups on how to provide addresses for unhoused Americans. Election communicators should make sure you’re prepared to answer questions about how the unhoused get registered.

“Maricopa County”

Maricopa comes up all the time because it’s a hotbed for election denial. This week, it’s because of a viral video claiming that votes were erased in the 2024 primary election.

“Kurt Russell”

There was a false claim that Kurt Russell said the 2020 election was stolen. It largely blew up at the end of August and has barely been seen since it was fact checked on Aug 30. However, you can still occasionally find mentions of it on X.

Wrap up

We can go on for a long time digging into the conversation. The goal of this newsletter is to surface the biggest and most important trends. If you want to know more about what’s going on, particularly in your state or region, please visit the dashboard. If you have any questions about what things mean, feel free to reach out us and we’ll see what we can find.

If you’d like us to set up a dashboard just for you, let us know.